Statement

Let p:X→Yp:X\to Y be measurable between , let μ\mu be a Borel probability on XX, and let ν=p∗μ\nu=p_*\mu. There is a y↦μyy\mapsto\mu_y, unique for ν\nu-almost every yy, such that μy(p−1{y})=1\mu_y(p^{-1}\{y\})=1 almost everywhere and

∫Xf dμ=∫Y(∫Xf dμy)dν(y)\int_X f\,d\mu=\int_Y\left(\int_X f\,d\mu_y\right)d\nu(y)

for every bounded Borel ff. It is called the disintegration of μ\mu over pp.

Conditional expectation

The function x↦∫f dμp(x)x\mapsto\int f\,d\mu_{p(x)} is a version of conditional expectation onto the sigma-algebra generated by pp. Work on Borel models before completing measures; the component measures can be singular with respect to μ\mu, so they need not extend to every set in its completion simultaneously.

References
  1. Terence Tao, “254A, Lecture 9: Ergodicity”, Theorem 4 and Exercise 13.